High-level contacts between Turkmenistan and Russia have intensified over the past year. Since November 2016 the heads of state have had three face-to-face meetings.
President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov flew to Sochi twice to meet President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, Putin himself paid a visit to Turkmenistan for the first time in many years.
The official media outlets and spokespersons from both sides did not report what topics or negotiations were brought up behind closed doors.Based on the results of the meetings, only the areas for potential cooperation were outlined.
However, on 3 November, in the course of the international conference “Oil and gas in Turkmenistan-2017”, the chairperson of the state holding “Turkmengas” Myrat Archayev announced that Turkmenistan could supply gas to Eastern Europe and the CIS countries via Russia.
Additionally, on November 2, following Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran, it was announced that “Gazprom” and the National Iranian Oil Company will start working on a feasibility study for the gas pipeline project from Iran to India via Pakistan a competitor to the TAPI gas pipeline.
“Chronicles of Turkmenistan” has contacted a renowned journalist and expert on Central Asia countries, Arkadiy Dubnov, to find out what President Berdymukhammedov is trying to get from Moscow.
Arkadiy Dubnov
— I would have put the question from a slightly different perspective, or even conversely what is it that Putin wants to get from Berdymukhammedov?
There has indeed been an obvious intensification of dialogue at the highest level between Moscow and Ashgabat. This is not by chance since Moscow has adopted a slightly different modus vivendi (attitude towards cooperation) in its relations with Ashgabat.
I have every reason to believe that Moscow’s concern over security issues along the southern border of Turkmenistan has triggered the intensification of relations.Moreover, Moscow still seeks to discourage Turkmenistan from active cooperation with the west in its gas projects.
Therefore it encourages involving Turkmenistan in projects which would allow it to choose the ideal areas of gas exports by, first of all investing less funds and secondly, by helping to avoid strong political pressure from the western parliamentary and non-governmental institutions which criticize Turkmenistan for its human rights record, which has been the case over the past few years.
Turkmenistan is experiencing tough pressure brought on by the international human rights campaign Prove they are alive.Perhaps that it is this reason why a trade agreement between Turkmenistan and the EU has still not been signed.
In this connection Moscow has been trying, quite competently, to assure Berdymukhammeov that Russia wants nothing else but to help Turkmenistan overcome its tough economic situation without expecting anything in return.
Thus, it creates a sensation of friendly disposition, readiness to help increase security of borders with Afghanistan by assisting with surveillance information.Moscow is making an impression of a reliable, good, historic ally.
As regards economic assistance, Moscow proposes to use the existing pipeline which Gazprom had previously used to purchase Turkmen gas, which has been standing idle for many years.
It appears that the Russian side assumes that Turkmen gas, if transported through this pipeline to Europe or Ukraine, will not pose any threat to “Gazprom”.There are various consumption patterns in Europe which by no means overlap or damages “Gazprom” by taking away its customers.
Based on this analysis, Moscow believes that such help to Turkmenistan will be very efficient from the perspective of financial investment into the Turkmen coffers on the one hand, and demonstrating good neighbourly relations to Ashgabat on the other hand.
Thus, Moscow is trying to get Turkmenistan “closer” and in my view, is doing so quite competently.
by Ruslan Tukhbatullin