Leading Off… At a March 2 news conference in Yerevan, Khalil Shirgholami, the Iranian envoy to Armenia, cautioned that the US-Israeli attack on Iran can heighten the chances of renewed instability in the Caucasus.
He intimated that Tehran has provided vital political backing for the Armenian government, helping to make the US-brokered provisional peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan a reality.He hinted that the ongoing military operations against the Islamic Republic threaten to upend the regional status quo in ways that might tempt Azerbaijan to back out of the peace deal and potentially take action on historical claims to Armenian territory in Syunik Province, an area that Baku calls West Zangezur. “The weakening or, God forbid, the defeat of Iran will also harm Armenia.
It is no secret that in history there have been claims of a number of forces to Armenia, and they remain to a certain extent,” Shirgholami said.He also issued what could be construed as a tacit warning to Armenia concerning the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, which is the centerpiece of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal.
TRIPP is envisioned as an American-operated transit route across Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, running just north of the Iranian border with both countries.Shirgholami indicated that the Islamic Republic would not sit idly by if it perceived TRIPP as having “a military purpose that can harm security.” Armenia has staked out a neutral stance on the US-Israeli-Iran war, urging a rapid end to the fighting.
Yerevan’s two immediate concerns arising from the conflict are the disruption of trade and the potential for a destabilizing influx of refugees.In case you missed it in the Caucasus… Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced his government does not intend to seek the closure of a Russian military base near Gyumri.
Speaking during a February 26 visit to Poland, Pashinyan maintained that despite his efforts to geopolitically pivot Armenia away from Russia toward the United States and European Union, “we are close partners with Russia; we have close economic and political ties," the Russian news agency Interfax reported. “We are determined and would like to develop cooperation with the Russian Federation, but the fact is that these relations are changing due to a number of factors," Pashinyan added.
Armeniahas suspended its participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.Pashinyan is facing a tough reelection fight, with a parliamentary vote scheduled for June.The accidental Russian shootdown of an Azerbaijani civilian jetliner in late 2024 continues to be a thorn in bilateral relations.
On February 26, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov assailed Russia for failing to fulfill agreements to take responsibility for the crash and pay compensation to the victims.A Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman quickly responded that Moscow has complied with all its obligations concerning the tragedy, in which 38 of the 67 people aboard died during a crash landing in Kazakhstan.
The crash was a hot topic during March 2 talks in Baku between Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev and a Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk.A presidential statement indicated that Azerbaijan remains dissatisfied with Russia’s response, noting that “the sides will take comprehensive practical steps in the near future to address the issues arising from the crash.” Meanwhile, across the Caspian… Production at Kazakhstan’s three main oil fields Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak plummeted by 47 percent in January, the Reuters news agency reported.
The three fields produced 2.7 million tons of oil and gas condensate in January, down from 5.1 million tons in December.Russia-Ukraine war-related disruption to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium transit route connecting the Kazakh fields to terminals along Russia’s Black Sea was a major cause for the decreased.
Production was also hampered by a shutdown at the Tengiz field due to a need to repair electrical equipment damaged in a fire.Officials in Kyrgyzstan are complaining about trade barriers established by Kazakhstan and Russia that contravene the free-trade regime established by the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), of which all three states are full members.
Speaking in Parliament in early March, MP Ismanali Zhoroev complained that Kyrgyz trucks are being subjected to undue delays at the Kyrgyz-Kazakh frontier, the Ulysmedia outlet reported.Deputy Trade Minister Sultan Akhmatov stated that the problem stems from trade tension between Russia and Kazakhstan, adding that he would send an official request for an explanation to his Kazakh counterparts.
Russia has reportedly established checkpoints at border crossings with fellow EAEU members Kazakhstan and Belarus that are ostensibly designed to inhibit the flow of “unfair imports” into Russia.Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement critical of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the country’s southern neighbor.
Voicing concern about “the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East,” the statement says it is “regrettable that the escalation occurred against the backdrop of diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation in the region.” It goes to say the United Nations Charter should serve as the basis for resolving “all complex international issues.” In sharp contrast to UN Charter’s mandate for signatories to uphold basic human rights, Turkmenistan is widely considered to be one of the most repressive states in the world.